A quarter-century ago, Poland’s communist government supposed that it could allow a free election while rigging the legal structure around it, so that it would remain in power even if it lost. It was a fatal miscalculation. The subsequent vote for the opposition Solidarity movement was so overwhelming that it forced the regime to cede power despite the rules it had established. Poland had demonstrated the raw power of a decisive popular vote — and defined a conundrum that autocratic governments have struggled with ever since.
Two particularly noxious regimes now are confronted with what might be called the Polish communists’ dilemma. The military regime of Myanmar, the nation formerly known as Burma, and the self-styled “Bolivarian socialists” of Venezuela each staged elections this fall on the expectation that, even if they lost, the constitutional and political structures they created to guarantee their power would save them. Myanmar’s generals wrote constitutional provisions granting themselves a quarter of the parliament’s seats, as well as control of powerful ministries, regardless of the election results. In Caracas, the Chavista regime of Nicolas Maduro told itself that it would still have the presidency, the military and the courts on its side even if it lost its majority in the National Assembly. (Courtesy of Stripes.com)
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