Myanmar’s Democratic Deficit: Demography and the Rohingya Dilemma

According to political demographers, who study the relationship between population dynamics and politics, two characteristics when observed together provide a rather good indication that a state is about to shed its authoritarian regime, rise to a high level of democracy, and stay there. Myanmar has both.

The first is demographic: the “right” age structure. A median age of 29 years marks the point when the historical probability of a country being a democracy, measured by Freedom House’s annual study of political rights and civil liberties, passes the 50-percent mark. According to the United Nations Population Division, Myanmar’s median age at mid-year 2015 was at 27.9 years and it is projected to pass the 50-percent mark in 2019.

The second is political: a pragmatic (rather than ideological) military-controlled government. This type of regime, although always repressive and sometimes ruthless, has proven exceedingly vulnerable to democratization as a country’s age structure matures. Only a handful of military regimes have survived past a median age of 30 years. (Courtesy of New Security Beat)

Troubling Early Signs in Myanmar’s New Government

The expectations for Myanmar’s new, National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government are almost impossibly high. After five decades under military or quasi-military rule, many Myanmar citizens expect the NLD government to make a decisive break with the country’s authoritarian past, while also promoting greater equality—and reforming the economy enough to foster stable growth that benefits more than just Myanmar’s elites. All these expectations are being heaped on a government led by ministers who, because of the country’s bleak political past, have little or no experience in governance and administration, and who belong to a political party organized around the dominating figure of Aung San Suu Kyi. The fact that the armed forces have little intention of simply receding from politics, a position reiterated by the head of the military on Armed Forces Day last month, only further complicates the NLD’s ability to govern. Although there are regional examples of countries, like Indonesia, where the armed forces have eventually been maneuvered out of politics, there are also many Southeast Asian examples, as like neighboring Thailand, where the generals never really returned to the barracks. (Courtesy of blogs.cfr.org)

Rohingya Refugees from Myanmar: Negotiating a Better Life

The Rohingya are an ethnic minority group from Myanmar, many of who have been displaced to surrounding countries due to targeted military violence against them. Kazi Farzana from the Universiti Utara Malaysia spent six months observing and interviewing 30 refugees in the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' (UNHCR) Nayapara camp, located in the southernmost part of Bangladesh on the border with Myanmar. The camp has been home to an estimated 18,500 refugees since 1991.

Reports by international agencies have documented the deplorable living conditions of Rohingyas in refugee camps. But the narratives, says Dr. Farzana, leave out the refugees' perception of their own lives. Despite the limitations of camp life, Dr. Farzana found the youth have managed to develop strong negotiation and basic survival skills. (Courtesy of en.acnnewswire.com)

Myanmar urged to release Muslim activists

An international rights group urged Myanmar’s new government Tuesday to pardon two Muslim activists who have been sentenced to two years prison on charges of contacting a blacklisted organization.

The two activists were prosecuted under pressure from a group of nationalist Buddhist monks responsible for a new set of laws governing race and religion -- an issue that continues to be a hot potato for Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD)-led government.

Zaw Zaw Latt, 28, and Pyint Phyu Latt, 34, were found guilty Friday, the same day that the government released a total of 199 political prisoners after police dropped charges against them ahead of the country’s New Year holiday.

Lawyer Thein Than Oo has described the sentences as “totally unacceptable”, telling Anadolu Agency that his clients “were sentenced because they are Muslims, not for breaching any laws".

On Tuesday, Human Rights Watch (HRW) called on democracy icon Suu Kyi to "include these activists in the pardon process”. (Courtesy of aa.com.tr)