Myanmar’s Democratic Transition: Who Will Be President? – Analysis

Aung San Suu Kyi’s party won a landslide victory in Myanmar’s recent general elections. Speculation is rife on who will become the next president.

By Naoko Kumada and Kyaw San Wai*

The National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi won a landslide victory in historic elections on 8 November 2015. It is seen as ushering the end of half a century of military-dominated governments and another step in Myanmar’s arduous transition.

Despite its image as the main obstacle to democracy, Myanmar’s reform process could not have happened without the tacit support of the military leadership, particularly former strongman Senior General Than Shwe. He precipitated the country’s transition to “disciplined democracy” under President Thein Sein’s stewardship. The process has proceeded according to some kind of transition plan backed by the senior military leadership. This plan was driven by two factors: a genuine realisation among the ruling elite that Myanmar needs to catch up with its neighbours; and to secure an ‘exit strategy’ for Than Shwe and his family. The elections also conferred more trust and legitimacy to the reform process.

A smooth transition of power?

While the military and the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) were surprised by the scale of the NLD’s electoral victory, they had set the election in motion with full knowledge that Suu Kyi could win. The NLD, which had won 80% of seats and 59% of the popular vote in the 1990 Constitutional Assembly, and bagged 43 out of 44 seats in the 2012 by-elections, garnered 78% of seats and 57% of the popular vote in 2015. (Courtesy of Eurasia Review)