The next government of Myanmar will face herculean tasks. The health and education systems are underfunded, the peace process and the transition to a federal Union are nowhere near completion, the economy is controlled by elites, poverty is still pervasive and the tax base to pay for all that needs to be done is inadequate.
There is also potential for the further release of ethnic and religious census data to result in communal unrest, because it will reveal that the Muslim community comprises a much higher percentage of the population than it did in 1983, a fact that the nationalist monk-led movement, Ma Ba Tha, will be eager to exploit to the detriment of the incoming government.
In the meantime the outgoing parliament and government are fuelling inflation by allowing the deficit to grow and printing money to pay for it. They are leaving an onerous legacy for their successors.
The National League for Democracy must be aware of the risks associated with taking power, especially since its actual power to govern will be quite limited, as the army still controls the police, the judiciary and the civil service. It can also quite easily derail the peace process by unilaterally initiating clashes in ethnic areas.
There has been talk of the Union Solidarity and Development Party and the army being willing to suspend article 59(f) of the 2008 Constitution to allow Daw Aung San Suu Kyi to become president.
This will be a tempting proposition for the NLD leader, who has long aspired to the role of head of state. But in a scenario in which she will have little power but must take the blame when problems occur, the presidency is a poisoned pill. Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will rapidly lose her aura if she falls into the trap of governing Myanmar solo. (Courtesy of Frontier Myanmar)
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