November 22, 2015

Transition In Myanmar: What's Next?

A Situation Briefing teleconference on the recent elections in Myanmar, and the historic victory of Aung San Suu Kyi's opposition party, the National League for Democracy, against the pro-military establishment.

After a half century of military control, Aung San Suu Kyi's pro-democracy movement swept Myanmar’s first competitive poll in 25 years. In his concession speech, President Thein Sein vowed to “respect the will of the people” and a “smooth transfer of power." Although Suu Kyi is considered the de-facto leader of Myanmar, she is legally barred from the presidency due to a clause ratified by the military establishment, which still holds considerable government control. There are rising concerns that comprehensive political change will be marred by deadlock and reversion to pro-military policies. In 1990, the military annulled Suu Kyi’s electoral victory and placed her under house arrest. The future of her political authority is far from certain.

What will Aung San Suu Kyi do to ensure an orderly transition of power? What are the possibilities of a relapse to a top-down, pro-military government? How will U.S.-Myanmar relations change following the election?

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