- China will remain a major source of foreign investment and trade for Myanmar, even as Naypyidaw diversifies its partners.
- Myanmar's new ruling party will need to compromise with the military establishment to be able to govern, especially on economic and ethnic militant issues.
- China will continue to leverage its influence over militant groups in the border region to exert pressure on Naypyidaw.
The next phase of Myanmar's political transition has been settled. The results of the country's Nov. 8 elections have confirmed that the opposition National League for Democracy now holds a healthy majority in parliament and can form a new government without the help of the formerly ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party. For the first time since Myanmar's 1962 coup, a fully civilian party will lead the government, although it will still have to vie for power with the country's military elite.
Meanwhile, China has been watching Myanmar's political transition with growing concern. Myanmar, which shares a 2,192-kilometer (1,362-mile) border with China that cuts across rugged highlands, represents access to trade routes in the Indian Ocean Basin and to overland commerce with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), now China's largest trading partner. However, the relationship between the National League for Democracy and Chinese leaders has been cool; Beijing conspicuously avoided congratulating party chief Aung San Suu Kyi on her victory. This track record would seem to suggest that she will lead her party — and her country — toward the West, in both diplomatic and economic terms. But Suu Kyi's actions and tactics will still be informed by Myanmar's geopolitical position, and regardless of the party in power in Naypyidaw, China will continue to play a massive role in the Myanmar capital.
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